BASE CASE CAGR
-8.4%
₹436.5 • FY2028
BULL CASE CAGR
+21%
₹684.0 • FY2028
BEAR CASE CAGR
-34.3%
₹255.5 • FY2028
Financial Modelling — Aarti Industries Ltd Base Case
Consolidated · Annual (in ₹ Cr)
3-Yr Horizon (FY29)
| FINANCIAL YEAR | MAR 2021 | MAR 2022 | MAR 2023 | MAR 2024 | MAR 2025 | MAR 2026 | MAR 2027 ESTIMATE |
MAR 2028 ESTIMATE |
MAR 2029 ESTIMATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Cr | 144 | 241 | 269 | 318 | 376 | 442 | 597 | 806 | 1,048 |
| Revenue Growth % | 0.0 | 67.4 | 11.6 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 17.6 | |||
| Expenses Cr | 122 | 194 | 216 | 256 | 296 | 342 | 454 | 604 | 786 |
| Operating Profit Cr | 23 | 47 | 53 | 62 | 80 | 100 | 143 | 202 | 262 |
| OPM % | 16.0 | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.5 | 21.3 | 22.6 | |||
| Other Income Cr | -2 | 1 | -3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Interest Expense Cr | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Depreciation Cr | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 30 | 40 | 52 |
| PBT Cr | 8 | 37 | 41 | 57 | 70 | 74 | 114 | 163 | 211 |
| Tax % | 25.0 | 25.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| PAT Cr | 6 | 28 | 30 | 42 | 53 | 56 | 86 | 122 | 158 |
| Operating Cash Flow Cr | 25 | 31 | 42 | 55 | 72 | 86 | 99 | 140 | 182 |
| PAT Growth % | 20.0 | 366.7 | 7.1 | 40.0 | 26.2 | 5.7 | +53% | +42% | +30% |
| Number of Shares Cr | 2.28 | 2.33 | 11.36 | 13.00 | 13.05 | 13.20 | 12.93 | 12.93 | 12.93 |
| EPS ₹ | 2.6 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 12.2 |
| Forward PE Exit | — | — | — | — | — | — | 60.0x |
Management Guidance ✓ Guidance Available [Preference 1: Concall Transcript]
Source: Screener / BSE Concall Transcript & Investor Presentation • Latest Filings
🤖 Management Guidance Notes Locked — Click "⚡ Run with AI" above to parse full Concall Transcript & Investor Presentation PDFs with OpenAI.
Capex Pipeline & Order Book Intelligence Confirmed Execution Pipeline
Source: BSE Regulation 30 & Concall Transcript Disclosures
Total Order Book
₹385 Cr
Visibility: 1.35x Revenues
Recent Orders / Inflows
+₹92 Cr
Fresh Export Orders Booked
Previous Order Book
₹280 Cr
YoY Expansion: +37.5%
Active Capex Pipeline
₹84 Cr
Commissioning: Q4 FY25 – Q1 FY26
• Phase-2 Taloja Plant: Doubling stainless steel flexible hose production from 12M meters to 24M meters annually.
• Recent Wins: Secured recurring export supply orders across North America, Europe & Middle East distributors.
• Order Visibility: Current order book of ₹385 Cr provides strong execution clarity for the next 4–6 quarters.
• Capex Financing: 100% funded via internal accruals and IPO proceeds; completely zero net-debt balance sheet.
Data Audit & Concall Citation Dashboard 100% Verified & Traced
Direct verification trail across official BSE concall transcripts, annual reports, and audited corporate filings
| Metric | Verified Real Value | Concall Citation / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Company Name | Aarti Industries Ltd | Screener Consolidated Filing |
| Share Price | ₹13,500 | Live Market Data |
| Market Cap | ₹82,728 Cr | Audited Filings |
| Stock P/E | 44.1x | Screener Ratios |
| Planned Capex | ₹550.0 Cr (Period: FY25 to FY26 (Noida & Chennai)) | [Page 4] Concall Transcript |
| Order Book | ₹385 Cr (Execution Period: FY25 to FY26 | Visibility: 1.35x Revenues) | [Page 3] Q1 Concall Transcript |
| Revenue Growth Guidance | 25.0% (Period: FY25 to FY27 (PLI Manufacturing Scale)) | [Page 2] Q1 Concall Transcript (Targeting 30%–35% CAGR - Conservative lower bound) |
| Profit Growth Guidance (PAT) | 30.0% (Period: FY25 to FY27 (Operating Leverage)) | [Page 3] Higher-margin metallic flexible hoses; PAT expanding at 35%–40% (Conservative lower bound) |
| Operating Margin (OPM) | 4.0% | [Page 3] EBITDA margin expected to hold in 22%–24% range (Conservative lower bound) |
FAQ
Everything you need to know about Stock Picker, automated financial models, 5-point institutional alpha frameworks, and data audits.
What is Stock Picker?
▼
Stock Picker is an institutional-grade quantitative and fundamental equity research platform. It automates multi-year financial modeling (FY21–FY28), cash flow waterfalls, scenario analysis (Base, Bull, Bear, Business Growth, Management Guidance), and extracts verbatim management commentary, capex disclosures, and order book pipelines directly from audited BSE corporate filings.
What is the Institutional Research Suite & the Fundamental Alpha Framework?
▼
The Institutional Research Suite integrates core institutional fundamental frameworks:
- 1. Management "Walk the Talk" Audit: Historical quarter-by-quarter comparison of spoken concall guidance vs. actual audited delivery to identify promoter honesty.
- 2. Unexecuted Order Book Runway: Backlog-to-sales ratio calculating exactly how many forward years of top-line revenue are locked in.
- 3. Peak & Trough Catalyst Tracker: Correlating major historical price pivots directly to corporate announcements, capex commissioning, and regulatory decisions.
How is Management "Walk the Talk" (Guidance vs. Delivery) audited?
▼
Stock Picker audits past earnings concall transcripts across 4 to 6 consecutive quarters. It maps the exact numerical guidance spoken by management against the audited financial results declared in subsequent quarters, generating a Promoter Reliability Score (0–100%). Managements that habitually miss guidance (like deceptive promoters) are flagged red, while compounders that consistently beat guidance are marked green.
What is the Unexecuted Order Book Runway ratio?
▼
Announcing a new order win is not enough if execution takes years or replaces old orders. Stock Picker tracks the net Unexecuted Order Backlog (₹ Cr) and divides it by the company's TTM consolidated revenue to determine the Order Runway in Years. A ratio above 1.5x–3.0x indicates locked-in cash flow clarity.
Where does Stock Picker source its financial data?
▼
Data is sourced directly from audited consolidated corporate balance sheets, P&L statements, cash flows, and key valuation ratios via Screener.in, BSE India (Bombay Stock Exchange), and NSE India. Every metric is backed by official corporate filing citations.
How can I get in touch with you?
▼
You can connect with us directly on WhatsApp for queries, feedback, or custom feature requests:
Statutory Regulatory Disclaimer & Important Notice
• Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme related documents carefully before investing.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information on this website is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any scheme. Investors should make their own assessment, and consult their financial/tax advisor, before making any investment decision.
Stock Picker is an analytical screening and financial valuation modeling software. Projections and forward valuation multiples generated by the algorithms are purely hypothetical mathematical outputs based on user-supplied assumptions and historical corporate filings.
